Bill Williams

"Deck the horse with boughs of holly
Fa la la la lah..."

The annual Boise Christmas Parade takes place Saturday November 29th in downtown Boise. The parade begins at 9:45AM, starting from the Morrison Center and proceeding north down Capitol Boulevard, west on Battery Street, then south on 9th to the finish on University Drive. This is a wonderful holiday parade featuring all of the things the big television parades lack, including antique cars, lots of local horse and rodeo groups, local businesses, and school marching bands. The weather promises to be clear and bright, and cold, so dress the kids warmly, bring a thermos, and turn out for a great old fashioned style holiday parade. This is one of those quality of life events that get Boise on so many "top places" lists.

In September we saw an increase in closed sales over the year before. It was a situation that the local and national papers heralded as very good news for the troubled housing market. I even heard one local radio real estate show suggest we'd see a strong rebound in October, November, and December. I warned that the number could also be due to the big mortgage stumble in August of 2007. So, how did we come out in October? Did we pass the bottom, or was it just a hiccup?

Ada County home sales for October come in at 409 for Single Family homes (no acreage, condos, mobiles, or townhomes). Last year in October there were 463 sales. That is a 12% drop, and puts us back on the track of declining sales we've been on all year long. The economy is on many minds, and mortgage rates rose a bit at the beginning of the month of November, although they have come back in the last few days. Anecdotally, many agents at the beginning of the month had reported fewer showings and less urgency in their buyer clients. It is a difficult time if you are a seller who has to move, or you're trying to sell a home in a hurry. Plan on being super clean and priced very competitively.

One bright spot in the market is the continuing decline in inventory. Currently there are 4175 Single Family homes on the market in Ada County. Last year at this time there were nearly 4500 active listings. Pending sales are slightly lower this year compared to the number we saw last year, with 457 contracts waiting to close right now. So with inventory declining, pendings remaining firm, and the rate of decline easing up from the beginning of the year is it time to join radio-guy and call the bottom? No. But it isn't the end of the world either. In fact, prices in the Treasure Valley are more affordable than they have been in a couple of years. If you are a buyer, be happy, and go shopping.

If you're a seller though, you need to be aware that we are still considering this a "declining market". Granted, the Treasure Valley area isn't seeing the same degree of price declines other markets have seen. According to the Idaho Business Review, our area is showing less than half the decline the National numbers show. "Nationally, the October median existing-home price is down 17.3 percent from its 2008 high in June, from $215,100 to $183,300, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. In Ada County, prices declined in that same period from a median of $209,900 to $195,400, or just 7.6 percent, according to data from the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service." Other data providers suggest our rate of decline could be as high as 1% per month.

Bottom line if you're a seller? Believe what your Realtor tells you about the market price your home can be expected to bring today. The old trick of pricing it a little high and letting the market reach up to get you has not worked in years, yet we continue to see it. If the goal is to sell the property, and if you really must move on, then price it where it will sell. There is no magic in this market, and there are no agents who can really sell your property for what it might have gotten last year, or what you "need", or what you "know it's worth". Meet the market on its terms and you will be successful in selling your home.

Meridian Dairy Days is coming at the end of this week, June 18th through the 21st, highlighted by the parade on Friday evening. This is truly one of our best small town events here in Meridian, and the weather looks like it's going to be perfect. Last year there were thousands of folks who turned out to see the parade, which features tractors, horses and riders, a number of very creative floats, the cheer squads , bands, and teams from the local schools, lots of classic cars, and a few racing cars from Meridian Speedway. A great time for everyone, celebrating our dairy heritage, and our small town Idaho community.

The parade stages on Watertower, and gets started at 7pm, running North down Main Street, then back up 2 1/2 and 3rd Streets. Come early, pick your spot, and remember to cheer for the Meridian Lions and the Rodeo Queens.

There will also be a carnival at Storey Park from Wednesday through Saturday, and the Meridian Chamber's Pancake Feed returns Thursday evening beginning at 5pm with a symphony to follow. Friday night also marks the start of an arts and crafts fair featuring 80 vendors.

The Dairy Days celebration wouldn't be complete without cows and goats, so on Saturday, all day, there will be a cow and goat show, along with a number of educational exhibits for everyone to enjoy. See the Chamber of Commerce website for more info. See you there!

Home sales in Ada County during May showed a modest improvement over April's numbers, with 504 single family homes closed for the month. While that doesn't seem like much, the monthly increases are showing a normal trend for this time of year. We have a market that is acting normally, albeit at lower levels than we are used to seeing. Last year we had 735 homes sold, so our sales as of May this year are down 33% from a year ago. Remember that in April we were 34% behind, and before that we had been as high as 42%. We seem to be trending in the right direction. Today, sales for the month of June to date are only 16% behind the same date last year.

Currently there are 4658 active listings on our MLS, which is a bit higher than last year's 4524, and nearly one hundred more than we had at the beginning of the month. That doesn't help the sellers to get better prices for their homes, since there are still plenty of choices on the market, in all price ranges. The lower end homes are selling well, as would be expected, with the best conditioned homes occasionally drawing multiple offers. Price and condition remain the key to selling homes in this market.

There are 718 pending contracts on the market now, which is slightly higher than last month. What is encouraging about that is the comparison to last year. The decline from a year ago in sales has been getting better as I mentioned. But the difference in this year's pendings to last year's is getting better even faster. Pendings at the end of May were only 19% below a year ago, where sales were 33% below. I would expect that to translate into firmer sales figures going through the summer months, and so far that is holding up.

Everything considered, it is still a buyer's market. There is plenty to chose from out there right now, and prices are back to levels that make much of Ada County very affordable. Sellers need to price their properties correctly, and then have them looking their very best, in order to find a willing buyer. Homes priced even a little over market are not getting showings, where others that are priced correctly are seeing many showings and even multiple offers.

The most frequently asked question right now is "Are any houses selling?" Some folks seem surprised when I tell them, yes, homes are selling in the Treasure Valley right now. Definitely not on the same pace as two summers ago, but better than we saw over the winter. In fact, the 460 homes that sold in Ada County in April is the best showing we've had since August last year, when the mortgage lending problem happened. Year over year, April '08 was 34% below '07, but we've been 38 to 42% below in recent months. For the valley as a whole, 634 single family homes sold in April. Pending home sales are holding steady at 700 in Ada county as I write this.

Currently there are 4460 active listings for single family homes in Ada County, 6558 for the Treasure Valley area represented by Ada and Canyon counties. That is a great deal of inventory, and that is the primary reason for the soft house prices. There is just too much out there for buyers to choose from, and successful sellers are having to be negotiable on price. Some areas are holding up better than others, of course, but there are no "hot" areas right now, so it remains a buyer's market.

One of the other questions that comes up frequently concerns short sales and foreclosures. To listen to the National media, the real estate market is swamped by people losing their homes. That is not the case in our market, although we have seen an increase in short sales. That is definitely not a significant portion of our market right now though. Of the 6558 actives in two counties on MLS right now, only 69 show as short sales (using a simple search of the mls).

Is this the right time for YOU to be considering buying a new home? If you, or someone you know is interested in buying or selling a home in the Meridian and Boise areas, please call me. I'd love to help you get started!