Barbara Salisbury

Listing Inventory drops 18.733% in one year! This September shows an active listing inventory of 25,543 units for residential and condominium homes on the market. This is the lowest September inventory since 2004.

Active Listing Inventory for September of Each Year:
2004 -- 25,445
2005 -- 27,234
2006 -- 32,423
2007 -- 31,433
2008 -- 25,543

This low inventory reduction will cause buyers to change their buyer patterns from the last three years. When choices of homes are reduced, buyer behavior increases to make housing choices faster. As buyers make housing choices at a quicker pace, the number of sales will grow faster than the number of new active listings coming on the market, which will result in appreciation of homes.

Watch this inventory number go below 22,000 by January of 2009 and remain at lower levels through 2009 over previous years.

The under contract data continues to stay at higher levels than 2007. August of 2007 was the month the marketplace really turned sour in Denver, although it had been wavering for at least 20 months before that date. In September 2007 the data showed 5928 homes under contract and set to close. Just 12 months later in September of 2008, the marketplace is registering 7204 homes under contract. That is a 21.525% year over year positive growth. The lag in these properties closing is still a result of changing mortgage guidelines and processing delays.

Denver Area Homes Under Contract in Sept. of Each Year:
2004 --5723
2005 -- 7123
2006 -- 6404
2007 -- 5928
2008 -- 7204

Sold data continues to be the slower indicator of a rebounding market. As of August the number of properties closed still has not yet caught up with the lower inventory and higher under contract data lines. This fall season will start to see year over year changes where 2008 and 2009 will outperform the previous year in sold data.

Denver Area Homes Closed August Each Year:
2004 -- 5058

2005 -- 5040
2006 -- 4538
2007 -- 4343
2008 -- 4063

The yearly figures for sold data follow a similar trend. In the chart below, the larger columns are year-to-date solds. If we annualize these numbers we predict the Denver marketplace will expect to close 42,871 units for 2008. This number reflects only a 6.015% decline from 2007 and will be the 4^th year in a row of declining sold data for homes. We predict we have hit the bottom and 2009 will be the year of appreciation as inventories continue to decrease and home buyers have a change in their behavior to move quicker into the market.

Denver Area Homes Sold Each Year Through September:
2004 -- 35,936
2005 -- 36,134
2006 -- 34,310
2007 -- 32,907
2008 -- 30,010

What does this all mean to Buyers and Sellers? The average days on the market for residential and condo units has held consistent for three years. Given the facts of the foreclosure increases the last three years, the difficult mortgage guidelines since last summer and lack of buyer confidence in the housing market you would expect this number to rise, when in fact it has not.

Denver Area Days on the Market in July of Each Year:

2005 -- 75
2006 -- 95
2007 -- 95
2008 -- 98

For Buyers, the shrinking inventory will provide fewer choices. Specifically looking at the price ranges below, $500,000. The number of homes closed below this price point of $500,000 makes up 92% of all sold homes in Denver for 2008. The inventory below $500K is 19,080 as of today. This represents 75% of the total inventory in the market. So if there are 92% of the buyers buying below $500, 000 and there are only 75% of available homes in this price point, we would conclude that the prices of homes below $500,000 will rise as the inventory continues to be reduced. The current absorption rate for homes below $500,000 is 5.985 months. If you take an annualized number of sales in the 0-$500,000 range gives you 38,251 for 2008 divided into the current available inventory of 19,080 in this price point, you get .498 X 12 = 5.98 months. We believe that 72% of the year has been past through August 2008 to annualize our numbers.

For sellers, if you own a home below $500,000 it is good news as you can easily make your home stand out as there as not as much competition. Since real estate is localized to the neighborhoods, you must see where you are positioned against other properties in you sub area. Check out what features other homes have that yours doesn't. For homes above $500,000 sellers must be the first priced home the buyers will find and must be in perfect condition with outstanding features to attract the buyers looking for homes above $500,000 in today's market.

Since most of the sales have occurred below $500,000 that leaves you to read the data above $500K which has 6463 units available and 2469 units closed through August, 2008. If we make the same calculations there is approximately a 22 month supply above $500, 000. This, we predict, will start to drop fast and get more in the 13-14 month range by December, as more and more homeowners in these price points will take their homes off the market if they are not selling.

I set out on a mission to discover what types of projects our elementary schools here in Highlands Ranch are planning this year for raising funds. My purpose was to be able to give recognition on my blog to those schools that I feel have the most innovative projects.

In researching, I discovered that communication from the schools to parents and the public about these projects varied greatly from school to school. I utilized the websites of the schools to get my information. I chose this method as a more efficient way of gathering this inform- ation since I do not have contacts at 95% of the schools.

Here is what I discovered. Most of the websites have very little or no information about the school's fundraisers. Most of the information on fundraising was to be found in the newsletters most of which were linked on the websites. However, even in the newsletters, there was not much information in most cases.

My endeavor showed me that 90% of the schools need improvement in their communications, both on their websites and in their newsletters. This being said, there were some school sites and newsletters that stood out as being exceptional in their thorough presentation of information on upcoming projects.

The schools which stood out are Bear Canyon, Copper Mesa, Heritage and Wildcat Mountain. My first choice for the most innovative projects for fundraising is Wildcat Mountain. They are also first choice for the best newsletter and, from what I can ascertain, they are having the largest number of projects. My second choice for the most innovative projects and for the best newsletter is Heritage.

And here are the projects:

Wildcat Mountain Elementary

Collecting Campbells Soup Labels which they can exchange for items to use at their school

Selling Entertainment Books, Sally Foster wrapping paper and gifts and Wild for Bulbs-flower bulb sales

Collecting Box Tops for Education to exchange for items for their school

Encouraging the use of Target's Red Card which contributes to the school a % of all sales bought with the card

Recycling paper, plastic, cardboard, aluminum, inkjet and toner cartridges and cell phones

Family nights at Baskin Robbins and Red Robin when a % of the sales will go to the school.

Heritage Elementary

Recycling paper, plastic, cardboard, aluminum, inkjet and toner cartridges and cell phones

Selling cookie dough and Varsity Gold discount cards

Collecting Box Tops for Education

Family night with dinner sales and auctions

I encourage everyone to participate in the fundraising efforts of your neighborhood schools. The funds raised purchase things like trees, playground equipment, schools signs, items needed for school assemblies, computers, art room special equipment and more.

Tony's Market is a well known popular market in the south Denver area where you can shop for those gourmet cheeses, fine meats, specialty prepared foods and deserts, imported foods, fresh seafood, produce, gift baskets, baked goods, gourmet coffee and candy and giftware. Anyone new to the Denver area, quickly learns about Tony's.

Tony's was started in 1978 by Tony Rosacci. His three children have helped all along the way to make this a great company with 3 locations now in the Denver area. It started as a meat market and quickly became very popular for their completely natural meats. Because of Tony's desire to please they began to offer more than meats and have continued to add other products through the years.

Tony's also has a wonderful catering departement. They cater everything from the smallest event to huge events at some of the largest locations such as Phipps Mansion and Butterfly Pavillion. They work with you to create the party that you want with suggestions for menus and themes. Lissa Rosacci, one of the 3 children, is an expert in decor and will help you to develop your event decor.

Mick, another of those children, is the chef who creates recipes, teaches nutrition, contributes to the weekly newsletter of Tony's Market called "Buon Appetito" and appears on a special section of Channel 7 News on Sundays at 7 and 10 am where he shares great ideas for meals.

Tony's now also has a wine market called Tony's Wines. It is a separate store because of liquor laws. The one I shop is just outside the market side door on Dry Creek. There they will help you with suggestions for wines. They have always hit the mark on what I am looking for. They personally taste each wine before they sell it. If it does not meet their approval, they don't sell it.

All of these things make Tony's Meats stand out as a superior place to shop, but there is more to Tony's than these. Tony's also sponsors a cooking school and culinary exploration trips.

I have found Tony's Meats and Wines a great place to get a gift basket -- if you want both wine and food in your basket. You must buy any food items at Tony's Market and then buy your wine at Tony's Wines. Both the market or the wine shop carry a variety of baskets from which you can pick the appropriate one for you special person and then either shop can build your basket, shrink wrap it and add a bow. The charge for this, in my case, was only $10 for basket, wrap, bow and "building." You can get a great basket for giving on any special occasion like housewarmngs, graduations, promotions, anniversaries, new job or just "Thank You."

Tony's locations:
4991 E. Dry Creek Rd, Centennial
7421 W. Bowles Ave, Littleton
874 W. Happy Canyon Rd, Castle Rock
Websites: www.tonysmarket.com
Tony Rosacci's Fine Catering, 12001 E. Caley Ave, Littleton
Website: www.tonyrosaccicatering.com

Buon Appetito!

Everybody is very interested in the current real estate market, whether it's investors or the media. Stories abound at the good and bad in the marketplace. The government passed a huge housing bill to help homeowners with the potential short term financial crunch that exists. The bill will basically give homeowners the ability to refinance if they are in a difficult financial situation due to the poor judgement of having obtained a loan that probably shouldn't have been written anyway. This will just be a short term fix. The long term help comes from the local markets themselves.

Let's take a look at the Denver marketplace, because some outstanding numbers are happening before our eyes. Are we totally out of the slower market Denver has experienced for 30+ months? No, but Denver looks good for the long term. Here's why!

Inventory in the month of August was 26,864 units for single family and condominiums. This is a reduction of 4,461 units from one year ago or a 14.24% decrease in homes on the market year over year. Anytime you have inventories continue to decrease, prices will increase. August of 2008 is also the first time in 5 years that the inventory of active listings decreased from July to August. See below how inventories have changed in August of each year.

2004 -1441 increase

2005 -707 increase

2006 -56 increase

2007 -423 increase

2008 -119 decrease

Clearly, the Denver real estate market is experiencing reductions in active listing numbers. This trend historically would reduce during the fall and winter, but rarely does it ever decrease in the summer months. When the housing market hits 22,000 units, the supply will not meet the demand. In looking at sold data, we can justify this number as the benchmark by which housing prices in Denver will go up.

Sold data has lagged behind the other indicators for more than 2 years, but appears now to be poised to start to increase year over year. See below the details of the sold data change from June to July of each year.

June 2004 -5769, July -5221

June 2005 -5646, July -5290

June 2006 -5379, July -4001

June 2007 -4848, July -4595

June 2008 -4287, July -4433

As the numbers indicate, 2008 was the first July to experience a rise in sold data over June in 5 years. One month hardly makes a trend , but this is the data we believe will show the Denver market having some long term trends positively affecting the housing market.

If we were to annualize the sold data for 2008 based upon the July figures, the projections show the total number of sold properties to be 44,736 for the entire year of 2008. If the listing inventory hits 22,000 units as a medium level, the Denver market would have a 5.9 month supply of homes. Hence, the marketplace will see appreciation when this occurs. Our best crystal ball suggests this will be in the first half of 2009.

Of course, this is for the overall market including all price ranges. As I stated last month in this newsletter, we are already at 4-5 months of inventory in the $0-$250,000 price range and have seen stabilizing of the prices, bidding wars and decrease in days on the market in this price range.

The number of properties Under Contract in the market stands at 7306 as of August 4, 2008. This is up 476 units over 2007 or a 6.9% increase in the number of properties yet to close. This figure indicates that the number of closings in August should exceed the August closings of 2007.

Homes priced above $750,000 have not experienced the same inventory drop nor increase in sold data as below this price level. We can attribute the slower upper end market to difficulties in obtaining financing and large levels of inventories. This price point takes time to get to a more robust market and will do so when the lower price points start to see appreciation. The more appreciation homeowners see from $0-$500,000, the more buyers will have equity to buy into the upper end market.

Free concerts, doggie events, free movies, senior luncheons, art festivals, wine tastings and amateur nights, do any of these interest you? If they do, I hope you live in Highlands Ranch, Colorado because all of these are taking place in the next month in Highlands Ranch and Lone Tree.

One of the events will be taking place in Lone Tree, the neighbor to the east of Highlands Ranch. On August 16 the Lone Tree Recreation Center, 10249 Ridgegate Circle is sponsoring "Open Mic Night" for all of you wan-a-be performers. Music, skits, juggling and more are allowed and prizes will be awarded. The event is FREE, but performers must register. Call 303-708-3513 for registration or information. The event will take place from 7 to 10 pm on August 16^th.

"Film in The Park" is back in Highlands Ranch! Bring your blanket and the family for these FREE movies at Civic Green Park. Here's the schedule:

Friday, August 1, "Bee Movie"

Friday, August 8, "Shrek the Third"

Friday, August 15, "Surf's Up"

All films start at 8:15 pm.

Are you interested in decorating your home with local art? Then don't miss the Highlands Ranch Arts Festival and Wine Tasting on August 9. Many local artisans will be featured along with their creations. Hands-on art activities will entertain the kids and the whole family will enjoy the food. Admission is FREE. As part of this festival Highlands Ranch Wine Sellars conducts a wine tasting. You may purchase advance tickets for the wine tasting for $17 if you are a HCRA member or $20 if you are not. Call 303-791-2500 to purchase tickets or for more information. The day of the event tickets will be $20. Proceeds from ticket sales will benefit the Highlands Ranch Community Scholarship fund. This combination event takes place on August 9th from 9 am to 6 pm at Town Center, 9288 Dorchester St.

Doggie Events

The Neighborhood Resource Program is sponsoring Dog Daze of Summer on August 16^th at the east end of Redstone Park, 3280 Redstone Park Circle from 9 to noon. Bring your leashed dog to enjoy doggie vendors and participate in the best dressed or best trick events. Call 720-240-4909 for more info.

What a way to end the summer, a Doggie Splash day! Dogs will take over the outdoor pool at Westridge. It will be a day of making friends, cooling off and practicing their swimming for Highlands Ranch dogs who participate. No leashes required at this event! Some breeds may not be allowed and the HRCA reserves the right to refuse any dog for any reason. The cost is $5 each for dogs of members and $10 for non-member dogs. The splash will take place from 10 am to 2 pm. Call 720-240-4909 for more information.

Every month seniors in Highlands Ranch get together for a Senior Luncheon. The next one will be on August 13^th from 12 - 2 pm in the Senior Lounge at the Southridge Recreation Center. To RSVP call 720-488-5251. The fee varies.

Kids 5^th through 8^th grade don't miss the next Ranch 'N' Roll at the Northridge Recreation Center from 7 to 11 pm on August 9^th. Here kids have a safe and fun place to "hang-out." Activities include, but are not limited to:

Inflatables such as Human Bowling Night

Interactive games such as Quiz Night and Trivial Pursuit Nights

DJ

Dancing

Video game Tournaments

Food and beverage for purchase

And more!

Call 303-471-8818 for more information.

Now here's information on the next performances for Culture-on-the-Green,

August 14 performance features Opie Gone Bad.

August 22, features Groove Society.

Performances start at 6:30 pm and last until 8 pm at Civic Green Park

Bring a picnic dinner!

For more information on either performance call 303-791-2500. You can find more information on any of the Highlands Ranch events at www.hrcaonlin.org.