So they say there is no Fall in Austin, Texas. Well.....that may be true to an extent.....but there are a few days when you can gain breathtaking pictures as this. Then we have California weather until the end of May. So there we have it......one of the few Fall pictures of Texas....in Austin.....in River Place.
The Christmas tree is up and we are preparing for the big festivities for the holiday season. For those that do not know, Texas has to make everything a bit larger here.....so we made our Capital a foot taller than the Capital in Washington. We did the same with the San Jacinto monument. We have ego issues here. Come by during Christmas
A shot over the former "Town Lake", now "Lady Bird Lake" during the 4th of July downtown firework show. If you have never been to Austin.....well, it is like California, but we tend to be a bit friendlier and our homes are a third the price. Can't beat the California weather....but we have 6 months a year. So we go on vacations in California. That is why our number one market for 12 years running is California.
Many of the requests we get is to know a bit more about the agents that we have on our team, being the largest Keller Williams Group in Austin and the 18th largest internationally. Though we are a small group in numbers we produce a fairly high volume and plan on continuing to do so in the years to come. As other companies have tended to reduce volume this year we have maintained our sales and have vastly increased our listings to an all time record. This, in turn, will allow us to have a robust year in 2009. With our area inventory reaching extremely low levels, we are primed and ready for the rebound and anticipate increasing our international ranking further this year.........
Come see us at www.TopKWGroup.com or click on one of our pictures below. Love to hear from you....
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About a year and a half ago I threw out this blog and got bashed for saying so.....as most did not believe the market was going to be as bad as I predicted. Actually, I underestimated the market downfall; but I still I see 2009 as the best buying time in decades for California. It takes some guts, but the buyers that wait for the robins will see spring pass them by..........
Here is the old blog..........
California 2009 the bottom is coming.......
I have mentioned for the last couple of years that the market in the major cities in California of San Diego, LA, San Francisco and San Jose will see a gradual decrease in demand followed by a very strong downturn. As typical in most downturns, the first year to year and a half a market sees the market slow down at a reasonable 5-10% in value. This is followed by a false flattening in the market. We have seen this flattening occur the latter part of '06 to the early part of '07 in California. The biggest mistake people make is to think that the correction is over, where, in reality, the second pricing drop is eminent. The next stage is usually a sharp turn downwards followed by an aggressive downturn created by seller's who have either lost jobs or their homes are upside down with their mortgage. Here we should see an additional 10-20 decline in values, for an estimated downturn of 30% since the peak of the market in late '05. With many California buyers securing 100% financing or negative amortization financing, the down turn has the potential to be worse than many have projected. Only time will tell, but my best estimate is that 2008 will the major downturn not seen since '91 to '93. This is merely a normal correction in a market that has exceeded the normal differential in values from other cities in the US over the last several decades. In reality, when you look at the past 10 years going into the down turn through '08, the California market will still show a very healthy increase. Those that have bought in the past 4 years will be affected greatly.
Having been a Californian, I visit California 2-3 times each year, and my latest trip in July was quite eye opening. Builders are now starting major incentive programs not seen in over a decade. Prices are dropping as anticipated, but not at the anticipated downturn predicted for next year. Many buyers and their agents are ignoring the trend and are still asking for prices grotesquely above the current market. This is typical of buyers that are substantially upside down with their mortgage or purchase price within the past few years. The prediction of a soft landing in California is not likely. Soft landings are typical in the Midwest and northern US, but hard landing are more typical in the East and West coasts. On the other hand the East and West coasts tend to experience massive increases in values during the boom cycle. The landing is currently somewhat soft to moderate, but will turn to a fairly harsh landing in the coming year. The investors have fled the market 2 years ago and I do not anticipate their return until '09.
In comparison to Austin over the last several decades, California has ranged from around 1.5 to 2 times the median market value of Austin. For the last 5 years this number has been running from 3 to 3.5 times the Austin median market value. There will be a combination of an increase in the Austin market with a decrease in the California market. The long term normal differential should even out between '08 and '09. Mortgage program reconstruction, rising interest rates, and rising gas prices should cause the change to happen earlier than anticipated. Austin saw the panic sales in '01 to '03 while California was experience incredible growth in values. Naturally, the cycles of real estate come around; and, that is what we are all seeing.
Austin will continue to gain substantially from the continued downfall from the west coast markets until the equilibrium is reached once again, and a stabilization in the Austin market will be reached at that time. Sometime in '08 to '09 we will once again see investors flocking back to California to buy "deals" that will be created as a result of the California correction. In the long run, both California and Austin will be incredible investment arenas in real estate as the world will not walk away from either location. Mind you I love California with all my heart and have just put an offer on a $2mm condominium in Coronado and am in final negotiations for less than half the so called market price. I completely believe that this will be back to a $3mm condo by 2010 or 2011, as condos just like it sold 2 years ago in excess of $3mm.
This is not negative news to California, but merely a reality of what the any cycle sees decade after decade. I was there to watch the fall of the summer of '90, and the panic of '91 and '92, watching my home drop 25% in one year. Hopefully we will not see any grand earthquakes over the next few years, as that will fuel the downfall. Many people are concerned of the negative news of the effects of global warming reducing the coastline causing further downfalls in pricing. I think that this is overly pessimistic thinking at this time. It is a serious concern, but I do not see the public creating a panic for at least one or two decades.
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Co-owner of Bartlett Real Estate Group ranked #18 internationally w/Keller Williams (04/08; #1 KW nwmc) marketing luxury homes $300's to the millions with sales in excess of $50mm in '07
Co-owner of the Bartlett Real Estate Group, (Ranked #1 in Austin NWMC & #27 w/ Keller Williams internationally) Tim, a native Texan, received his business degree from Baylor University in 1981 and started his real estate sales career in Houston initially marketing to 1st and 2nd time homebuyers; then, later marketing to move up to luxury and ultra luxury homebuyers from around $500,000 to the multiple millions. Tim has worked with builders specializing from ultra contemporary, traditional, Austin-urban, Spanish, Tuscan, hill country and colonial architecture. Tim has worked with several builders in helping in the design stage for homes involved with Austin's Green Building Program varying from 2 to 5 star ratings. See www.TopKWGroup.com for further details.
Tim has been involved with developments from raw land to tentative mapping, to final mapping, to marketing projects at these stages, or upon completion of the infrastructure, or marketing homes on the completed homesites.
For 8 years, Tim created and coordined the very successful River North Area Realtor Property Tour to show premier listings in the area to the realtor community with any agents.
Upon relocating to San Diego in 1986, Tim operated as an independent real estate broker marketing exclusive residential homes, acre-plus estate sites and subdivision development sites (either completed or at various mapping stages).
Since moving back to Texas in 1995 from California, Tim has continued to focus on marketing very upscale residences, winning numerous company and national achievement awards to include the following:
Tim markets residences in the west Austin, and is a premier specialist in the "River North" area designation, to include "River Place", "Westminster Glen", "Glenlake Estates", "Long Canyon", and "Steiner Ranch" as well as new home subdivision sites, such as The Hillside on RR2222.
As 14 year residents of River Place, Tim and his family love the variety of amenities and atmosphere that River Place and the surrounding area offers as well as the easy access to the many amenities that Austin provides. He has watched most of the homes being built in the River North area, which gives him a tremendous marketing advantage.
Tim's strength was partially derived from a real estate broker in La Jolla who was blinded at an early age, yet became an extremely successful real estate agent, broker, mediator, and real estate board president. Read the astonishing story at www.klattrealty.com. He further gains his drive from one grandfather who was a professional football player, and another who ran a very successful steel manufacturing comany and was president of the Steel Builder's Association. "I feel it is my obligation to my ancestors and to my immediate family to help as many people I can to be the best I can be."
Tim is a regular guest on "The Real Estate Show" with Dave McMillan on 1370am from 1-2pm on Saturday.
Tim enjoys playing ice hockey, running, and spending time at his family's ranch in Flatonia, TX
See me on FACEBOOK
Tim specializes in new and resale homes valued at $300,000 to the multiple millions as well as marketing and brokerage of new-home subdivision projects from raw land through the development process, to streets, to marketing the individual homesites, homes or condominiums. Tim has been marketing real estate since 1982 and has been consitantly working since his 600 home newspaper route in the 4th grade.
Tim's real estate group has sold over $50mm in 2007; see website for partner information.
I used Tim Moncrief when purchasing my first home here in Austin Texas. Like any first time home buyer, I really had no idea what I was doing. Tim walked me through all the steps of buying the house, showed me multiple great places, and did all the dirty work in getting the deal done. Tim was available anytime I had a questions about ... well anything and everything. The process was so easy that I talked to and about Tim on my radio talk show. Since purchasing my house, I've contacted Tim multiple times with questions about painting, floors, and other home renovations. In every instance, without hesitation, Tim has been there for me. I couldnt have done it without him! Well, I could have but I'd probably be living in a van down by the river instead.
Bobby Bones
Morning Show Host, 96-7 Kiss Fm - Austin
Television Host, ME Television Contributing Writer - Insite Magazine
We bought a waterfront lot in River Place in Austin from Tim, partner of Bartlett Real Estate Group, and are now building our dream home. Tim was there for us every step of the way and we not only recommend him but we used his team a second time when it was time to sell our existing home during the build.
Robert and Deborah Corbin
Riverplace on Lake Austin Our experience with Bartlett Real Estate Group was absolutely outstanding. When we first decided to consider moving to Austin Texas, we spoke with an agent who listened to our needs, wants, and requirements for a new home. Not only were we unfamiliar with the area, but we were also fairly new to the home buying process. Purchasing a home from three states away was difficult enough, and finding the realtor to help us in such a dynamic situation was critical.
We worked with Tim Moncrief twice when buying properties in Austin Texas. Both times we felt he was very professional and hard working without putting any pressure on us to buy. He is very knowledgeable in the Real Estate market. We will use him again and have referred other people to him who are buying in the Austin area.
H Schwartz
Bartlett Real Estate Group was recommended to us by friends in Austin, and they lived up to every single expectation we had, and then some. We were able to purchase a home in Austin with the help of Tim Moncrief. His staff was helpful in all aspects of the purchasing process. We purchased our home with his help, and would gladly recommend this real estate group to anyone wishing to have real estate assistance in Austin. Bartlett Real Estate Group went above and beyond in many ways, and their efficient work, vast amount of knowledge, and suggestions helped us settle into a home we are very grateful for.
Ganesh and Jennifer Iyer
Thanks to you and your team for always providing me with the latest technology that keeps me informed about the Austin Texas Real-Estate market. I always know who to call when I want REAL Real-Estate information. Its nice to know your team will lead
My family in the right direction whether we are buying or selling....Bartlett Real Estate Group.
Chris Chase
Vice President/Sales
Chase Carpets & Tile
David Milam Taylor and I were referred to Tim Moncrief at Keller Williams through a family friend. We initiated contact with Tim with regard to purchasing a lot in River Place. He immediately began emailing us information on the area as well as current lots available. We were very impressed with his knowledge of the River Place and Austin area. In short order we purchased a lot. His attention to detail in our contract negotiations and closing were excellent. One year later, we decided not to build and to sell our lot. Once again, we contacted Tim. He immediately provided us with area comps and we set our price. One day after listing our lot, Tim brought us an offer. We negotiated and sold. Our experience with Tim Moncrief and Keller Williams was exemplary. We engaged the Bartlett Real Estate Group to sell our home in Steiner Ranch, working with Tim Moncrief as our sellers agent. Soon after listing the home, we suffered an unexpected loss in the family and had to leave town. Tim was very empathetic and handled all the showings and looked after the house while we were gone. As a standard part of their services, phenomenal full-color brochures were printed and in constant supply at the home and they developed an interactive listing on the web with fantastic 360-degree views of every room. The home sold in a matter of weeks! We were very happy with the Bartlett Group and especially our agent, Tim Moncrief. We would highly recommend his team and plan on using them again for our next personal real estate transaction. "Working with Bartlett was great. We found Tim to be professional, responsive and very knowledgeable about the housing market in River Place and Austin. We felt confident in having him as our advisor in the sale of our home.
We were most pleased with The Bartlett Real Estate Group, in particular Tim Moncrief. Tim is the essence of proactivity. Never once did we feel he should be doing something more than was being done. He helped us understand what the market for our house would be in Austin and what things could be done to best maximize the value we received. We had an acceptable offer within 9 days of it being listed. The buyers were qualified and the transaction went off without a hitch. We would highly recommend Tim and the Group.
Regards,
Cindy Rondini
Taylor & Beth Sherwood
Unfortunately, we were selling a home during one of the most disadvantaged home resale markets in recent history in Austin Texas during it's down market a few years ago. This home was purchased during a sellers market when prices were high and the number of available homes was low. We had to move a few years later and the market had changed dramatically. Prices dropped and the number of homes for resale was high. We listed this home with 2 different agents with no success. A year passed and we were discouraged. We were not getting any offers and very little feedback we could act on. Since nothing was happening, we took the home off the market. We needed new ideas and an innovative marketing program. We contacted Tim with the Bartlett Real Estate Group and after an honest, reality based discussion, listed the home again. The home was placed on the market based on Tim's suggestions. Even though the home didn't sell immediately, we started to feel that we were on the right track. The home was shown and we received feedback from the potential buyers. Tim simply put more energy into the process and we were pleased to see activity. The market was still down, but we were able to sell the home. We feel that if we had listed the home with Tim earlier, the home would probably have sold at the same price one year sooner. I would list with Tim Moncrief again without reservation.
Robert & Maggie Rubrecht
Thanks Tim!"
Kevin Kerner
My wife and I were very pleased with the job Tim did for us. He took a special interest in our needs and work overtime to make sure we were able to close the deal. I would strongly recommend Tim and his company to anybody looking to purchase or sell their home in Austin.
Ron Schwartz
Tim´s experience with home sales and with the Austin market were exactly what we needed. He guided us to neighborhoods that were within our budget, but that were sure to maintain value. He also helped us look beyond the aesthetics of each home. As new home-buyers, we appreciated his helping us see this purchase as an investment. He carefully reviewed disclosure documents and he examined the interior and exterior of homes, making sure we noticed the good and not-so-good features. He also talked with us about the resale value of various characteristics. I appreciate that Tim helped us make an informed buying decision. As a result, the home we chose was right for us, for every reason. Renee & Matthew Lemke
We have bought and sold three homes in the Austin area with the work of Keller Williams Bartlett Group. Since we consider the homes we live in as important investments we wanted to choose the right family home but also make money on the home. With the help of this awesome realty group we have gotten great advice, have made good decisions, and have had easy transactions. For an expert realtor we would recommend using Tim Moncrief and Sarah Sutfin as your agents - we would definitely want him again. Monica and David Goodstein - Riverplace and Twin Creeks homebuyers In an attempt to save money we decided to use a discount broker that promised one percent expenses but what we got was one percent effort on our behalf. After months of dissatisfactory service, we gave Tim Moncrief a call. From the moment we signed on with the Bartlett Group we noticed the amazing difference in service. The level of professionalism and proactive communication with Tim was incredible. We were well informed through out the entire listing process. His knowledge of the market is without parallel. Within a matter of weeks we had a written offer and we were able to close the deal in short order. We highly recommend, Tim Moncrief to anyone in the River North Area.
Our experience as home sellers with The Bartlett Real Estate Group was absolutely wonderful. Our initial consultation was with Tim Moncrief; his easy-going, yet highly professional and experienced demeanor put us at ease almost immediately and it did not take us long to decide that this was the real estate team for us. Tim soon enlisted Clare Coffey and Kim Joseph to be our primary agents as we prepared our house to go on the market. These two ladies were nothing short of incredible; their endless energy, positive attitude, and incredible patience guided us through the entire process. During a rather tumultuous negotiating period, we received even more support and advice from other members of the Bartlett team, including Kay Sittler, Tom Radack, and Ken Bartlett himself. The sense of "family" and genuine concern for our well-being put forth by the entire organization was extraordinary. We cannot say enough good things about our home-selling experience with The Bartlett Real Estate Group; we will definitely use them again when we are in the market to buy a house."
Sylvia and Daniel
Thank you again for everything. Please pass long our regards to Kim and Tim and the rest of the team. Take care and peace be with you.
Cheers,
David
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