Anthon Pang, Sales Representative, e-PRO, SRES

Find out what the experts think the market will likely be in 5, 10, or 20 years. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is hosting its 2008 series of "Housing Outlook Conferences" in (and about) these Canadian urban centres:

• Quebec: Montreal and Quebec
• Ontario: Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Ottawa, and Toronto
• Alberta: Edmonton and Calgary
• BC: Vancouver

The Toronto Housing Outlook Conference will be held at the Toronto Convention Centre (South Building, Room 718) @ 255 Front St. W, Toronto, on November 6, 2008, from 7:30 am to noon. Early book price (book before Oct 24) is $190.48 + GST (or $200 even).

To register: CMHC conference web site

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has released the results of its 2007 Renovation and Home Purchase Survey.

Across these 10 major centres, (estimated) renovation spending in 2007 was up $2 billion from the previous year, to $19.7B. That's an average of $12,800 per household!

In Toronto, we see intentions for 2008 are down from last year. Of those households surveyed, 6% responded that they intended to purchase a home as their primary residence in 2008 -- that's a decline from the 9% surveyed last year who also stated their intent to buy a home.

Similarly, the percentage of households intending to spending more than $1000 on renovations this year is down slightly to 41% from 43% last year.

The profile of the first-time home buyer is largely unchanged from last year:

• prospective first-time home buyers represented 42% of those intending to buy a home in 2008
• the majority of first-time buyers are between the ages of 25 and 34, with an annual household income between $40K and $60K

Source: Renovation Spending Across 10 Major Centres Up by $2 Billion in 2007 (CMHC)

Mid-month numbers have been crunched and it's a mixed bag of news from the Toronto Real Estate Board, although one could argue that there's a positive spin to it.

In the GTA, compared to the first half of May 2007, the first half of this month saw a 12% decline in the number of sales. However, strong prices (average price is up 6% from the same last year) may fuel optimism that the 2nd quarter will be an improvement over Q1 '08. (A breakdown of the 416 and 905 shows similar percentage declines and increases.)

However, we're now seeing an 11% increase in listings and 35 days on market (up from last year's 28, and last month's 27 days on market).

A Call for Buyers. The increase in listings is being trumpeted as offering a higher quantity (and implicitly, higher quality) of listings; last year, buyers were "challenged" by limited selection.

Details here: GTA Resale Housing Market Moderate in May (Source: TREB)

Resales activity for April '08 was described as "moderate" by the Toronto Real Estate Board in its latest market report, but looking at the numbers, we see:

• number of transactions down 7% from April '07 overall
• in Toronto, the number of transactions was down 10%
• outside Toronto, the number of transactions was down only 5%

The bright side is that this still being described as a seller's market because:

• prices are up 5 to 6% over the same period last year
• while listing inventory is up 7% from a year ago, days on market is shorter (27 vs 30)
• lastly, the market saturation ratio has been trending down since the beginning of the year (translation: demand outpacing supply, from 3.14 months of inventory to 2.8 months of inventory).
  

Reference (for all the gory details):

• GTA resale housing market moderate in April, but prices up

Mid-month figures have been released and the numbers point to another consecutive month decline in the Greater Toronto Area -- and this time, the weather can't be blamed. First, the bad news:

• Overall, the GTA saw a 5% decline over the same period in April 2007.
  
• The 416 (Toronto) saw an 11% decline over the same period a year ago.
  
• While, the 905 (surrounding areas) saw a 1% decline over the same period a year ago.

However, on the bright side (i.e., the obligatory "good news") is that:

• prices are up 7% overall from a year ago
• 10% in the 416
• 6% in the 905

The sentiment is that the market is "still healthy" with encouragement from listing inventory that is up only slightly, days on market for solds that's shortening, and a rising average sold to asking price ratio.

Source:

• GTA resale housing market down but still healthy (Toronto Real Estate Board)